As to whether there will be snow pack left by summer, as you say, we’ll know in a couple of months.

Don’t confuse inches of snow depth with SWE, and don’t sweat SWE until late next month.

As to bets, I never bet on the weather. Weather (as opposed to climate) is too unpredictable.

When you looked at this most recent data did you notice how fast the snow is continuing to melt in most places in the Cascades?

Like here at the STEVENS PASS SNOTEL (SVNW1) where the snow level has dropped 3.2 inches in 12 hours.

Or here at the CORRAL PASS SNOTEL (COPW1) where snow level has dropped 1.3 inches in 24 hours.

Here’s another one CAYUSE PASS SNOTEL (CAYW1),
where snow level has dropped 4.1 inched in the last 12 hours.

And still another SKOOKUM CREEK SNOTEL (KUSW1) where snow level has dropped 3.9 inches in the last 12 hours.

etc., etc. There are some places where snowpack has increased in the last 12 hours but they seem to be a minority.

As to percentage of average snowfall, when I examine the chart there seem to be a fairly even split between those above 100% and those under that figure. And most of those are losing snow fast.

For example, POTATO HILL SNOTEL (PTHW1) which was at 135% of normal yesterday lost 2.1 inches of snow today.

In short, when I examine the data you referred me to I see a high melt rate due to warmer temperatures that is quickly undoing the effects of the heavy snows that we received in December.

It was warm before the snows came, and now that they’ve gone it’s warm again and the snow is melting fast. Maybe there will be more snow and the snowpack will increase again. Certainly seems possible… You can’t really predict the weather.

Meanwhile, Lewis County has had back-to-back years of 100-year or 50-year floods, or whatever you want to call them, caused by intense rain and rapid snowmelt. (You actually don’t mention that part of the post at all.) That could be coincidence of course, but it also happens to fit perfectly with what the climate models predict will happen in areas like ours. Go figure.

JR

That was true on December 18. But days later the snowpack was near normal and then it shot up over 100% throughout the Columbia River drainage – with some locations reporting 250% of normal. And even after the pineapple express, the SWE is generally still above 100%.

“Moreover, the melting of the recent snow means that come summer we will derive no benefit from December’s heavy snowfall.”

Wanna bet? Forget the Dec. 18 chart – here’s the updated SWE chart:

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snow.cgi