Posted by: JohnnyRook | February 16, 2009

James Hansen: “The Sword of Damocles”

Dr. James Hansen of NASA’s GISS released the following statement via email a few hours ago reiterating his call to world leaders for an end to new coal-fired power plants. He points out that recent research indicates we may be near irreversible climate tipping points.

Only in the last few years have scientists really come together to underline the extreme danger and urgency of the climate crisis. Public inaction is founded, as Hansen sees it, on the current economic crisis, ignorance due lack of scientific training and the confusion it feels because of the well-organized, expensive, widespread, industry-financed disinformation campaign. this is understandable. One cannot be so forgiving of our leaders.

The principle leadership belongs to the United States, but Dr. Hansen reminds the British PM that his influence is not inconsiderable and that we all have a tremendous responsibility to future generations.

What follows are Dr. Hansen’s full remarks:

Over a year ago I wrote to Prime Minister Brown asking him to place a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in Britain. I have asked the same of Angela Merkel, Barak Obama, Kevin Rudd and other world leaders. The reason is this – coal is the single greatest threat to civilization and all life on our planet [emphasis--JR].

Our global climate is nearing tipping points. Changes are beginning to appear, and there is a potential for explosive changes with effects that would be irreversible – if we do not rapidly slow fossil fuel emissions over the next few decades.

Tipping points are fed by amplifying feedbacks. As Arctic sea ice melts, the darker
ocean absorbs more sunlight and speeds melting. As tundra melts, methane a strong greenhouse gas, is released, causing more warming. As species are pressured and exterminated by shifting climate zones, ecosystems can collapse, destroying more species.

The public, buffeted by day-to-day weather fluctuations and economic turmoil, has little
time or training to analyze decadal changes. How can they be expected to evaluate and filter outadvice emanating from special economic interests? How can they distinguish top-notch science and pseudoscience – the words sound the same? Leaders have no excuse – they are elected to lead and to protect the public and its best
interests. Leaders have at their disposal the best scientific organizations in the world, such as the United Kingdom’s Royal Society and the United States National Academy of Sciences.
[emphasis--JR]

Only in the past few years did the science crystallize, revealing the urgency – our planet really is in peril. If we do not change course soon, we will hand our children a situation that is out of their control, as amplifying feedbacks drive the dynamics of the global system.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air has already risen to a dangerous level. The preindustrial carbon dioxide amount was 280 parts per million (ppm). Humans, by burning coal, oil and gas have increased carbon dioxide to 385 ppm, and it continues to grow by about 2 ppm per year.

Earth, with its four kilometer deep ocean, responds only slowly to changes of carbon
dioxide. So more climate change will occur, even if we make maximum effort to slow carbon dioxide growth. Arctic sea ice will disappear in the summer season within the next few decades. Mountain glaciers, providing fresh water for rivers that supply hundreds of millions of people, will disappear – practically all of the glaciers could be gone within 50 years, if carbon dioxide continues to increase at current rates. Coral reefs, harboring a quarter of ocean species, are threatened, if carbon dioxide continues to rise.

The greatest threats, hanging like the sword of Damocles over our children and
grandchildren, are those that are irreversible on any time scale that humans can imagine. If coastal ice shelves buttressing the West Antarctic ice sheet continue to disintegrate, the ice sheet could disgorge into the ocean, raising sea level by several meters in a century. Such rates of sea level change have occurred many times in Earth’s history in response to global warming rates no higher than that of the past thirty years. Almost half of the world’s great cities, and many historical sites, are located on coast lines.

The most threatening change, from my perspective, is extermination of species. Several
times in Earth’s long history rapid global warming of several degrees occurred, apparently spurred by amplifying feedbacks. In each case more than half of plant and animal species went extinct. New species came into being over tens and hundreds of thousands of years. But these are time scales and generations that we cannot imagine. If we drive our fellow species to extinction we will leave a far more desolate planet for our descendants than the world that we inherited from our elders. We will leave a world haunted by the memories of what was.

Clearly, if we burn all fossil fuels, we will destroy the planet we know. Carbon dioxide
would increase to 500 ppm or more. We would set the planet on a course to the ice-free state, with sea level 75 meters higher. Coastal disasters would occur continually. The only uncertainty is the time it would take for complete ice sheet disintegration.

The tragedy of the situation, if we do not wake up in time, is that the changes that must be made to stabilize the atmosphere and climate make sense for other reasons. The changes would produce a healthier atmosphere, improved agricultural productivity, clean water, and an ocean providing fish that are safe to eat.

Actions required to solve the problem are dictated by physical facts, especially fossil fuel reservoir sizes. About half of readily extracted oil has been burned already. Oil is used in vehicles, where it is impractical to capture the carbon dioxide. Oil and gas will drive carbon dioxide to at least 400 ppm. But if we cut off the largest source of carbon dioxide, coal, it will be practical to bring carbon dioxide back to 350 ppm and still lower through improved agricultural and forestry practices that increase carbon storage in trees and soil.

Coal is not only the largest fossil fuel reservoir of carbon dioxide, it is the dirtiest fuel.
Coal is polluting the world’s oceans and streams with mercury, arsenic and other dangerouschemicals. The dirtiest trick that governments play on their citizens is the pretense that they are working on “clean coal” or that they will build power plants that are “capture ready” in case technology is ever developed to capture all pollutants.
The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are
factories of death. When I testified against the proposed Kingsnorth power plant, I estimated that in its lifetime it would be responsible for extermination of about 400 species – its proportionate contribution to the number that would be committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.
[emphasis--JR] Of course, we cannot say which specific species should be blamed on Kingsnorth, but who are we to say that any species are worthless?

The German and Australian governments pretend to be green. When I show German
officials that fossil fuel reservoir sizes imply that the coal source must be cut off, they say they will tighten the “carbon cap”. But a cap only slows the use of a fuel, it does not leave it in the ground. When I point out that their new coal plants require that they convince Russia to leave its oil in the ground, they are silent. The Australian government was elected on a platform of solving the climate problem, but then, with the help of industry, they set emission targets so high as to guarantee untold disasters for the young and the unborn. These governments are not green. They are black – coal black.

On a per capita basis, the three countries most responsible for fossil fuel carbon dioxidein the air today are the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, in that order.Politicians in Britain have asked me: why am I speaking to them — the United States must lead? But coal interests have great power in the United States – the essential moratorium and phase-out of coal likely requires a growing public demand and a political will yet to be demonstrated.

The Prime Minister should not underestimate his potential to initiate a transformative change of direction. And he must not pretend to be ignorant of the consequences of continuing coal emission, or take refuge in a “carbon cap” or some “target” for future emission reductions. Young people are beginning to understand the situation. They want to know: will you join theirside? Remember that history, and your children, will judge you.

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Responses

  1. Have you seen today’s NSIDC chart? What the heck is up with the line dropping off a cliff the last few days??? Can you post something about this? Maybe cross-post it at D-Kos too?

    Thanks.

  2. This sent me to searching for more about the tale of the Sword of Damocles.

    It is the perfect tale for our situation – we are in anxiety and imminent peril. And “there can be nothing happy for the person over whom some fear always looms”

    It also carries the threat to power – the sword hanging by a hair above the throne.

    Coal is a slow killer that governments dare not ignore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sword_of_damocles
    http://www.ackland.org/tours/westall.html

  3. [...] you to Johnny Rook for this article. Check out his blog at ClimaticideChronicles.org [...]

  4. How consequent is Prof. Hansen’s argumentation??
    Already back in 1981 the James Hansen’s team published their finding that, overall, Earth’s average temperature rose by about 0.4°C for the period from 1880 to 1978, but there was a global cooling from 1940-1970[1] that he considered subsequently as follows: “I think the cooling that Earth experienced through the middle of the twentieth century was due in part to natural variability,” he said. “But there’s another factor made by humans which probably contributed, and could even be the dominant cause: aerosols.” Meanwhile it is widely claimed that a high concentration of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere may have had a cooling effect on the climate because they scatter light from the Sun, reflecting its energy back out into space, by industrial activities at the end of the second world war. The way Hansen and his supporting colleagues handle the matter is insufficient for the following reasons:

    The sulphate aerosols relation towards the mid-century global cooling should be checked against three facts, namely

    1. the cooling started with extreme winters in Northern Europe in winter 1939/40; and
    2. the temperatures were low during the winter season, when the effect of sulphate aerosols on sun ray was at the lowest, and thirdly
    3. the pre WWII industrial activities presumably had been much higher than immediately after the end of WWII in 1945[2].

    MORE at: http://www.oceanclimate.de/Archiv/apr_08.html

    [1] David Herring, November 5, 2007, „Earth’s Temperature Tracker“ , NASA at : http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/GISSTemperature/printall.php

    [2] Actually only since 1950, annual car production has grown fivefold , starting with eight million, today about 40 million cars. Similar figures, if not higher, apply for aviation, electricity production, shipping, etc.

  5. The immediate question that comes to mind is what is to be done regarding China, India and other big natons that are assuming the mantle of fossil fuel pollution from the “old” West.
    If we still had hegemony (perish the thought given our previous misuse of it), the changes could be implemented if the West had the will.
    But having been so sucessful in inculcating consumer capitalism into the mindset of developing countries, how can we influence, let alone direct, those outside our ambit, when they are now infected with something suspiciously like our consequent denialism, for following similar fear of psychic withdrawal symptoms regarding their commodity fetishisms , too?


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